Most FMCG brands claim and celebrate their initial launch as success based on strong placements and early sales numbers. However, only 1 in 5 is able to pass the ultimate consumer test of achieving strong repeat purchase to sustain in the long run.
According to consumer research done by reputed market research agencies like Nielsen and Catalina, more than 80% of new consumer packaged goods products do not sustain commercially in their markets beyond the launch phase. This high product failure rate points to a key truth: brand awareness and initial adoption are only a beginning, what matters more eventually is whether the product usage satisfies the customers sufficiently to become a regular part of their lives.
Key Factors Behind Most New Product Launch Failures:
- Trial vs. Repeat Buying: The Slip Between the Cup and the Lips
Initial trials are often easier to achieve when supported by strong launch campaigns or promotional pricing. But long‑term success essentially depends on the product’s performance in ensuring repeat purchases. A Catalina research study that tracked real purchase behavior of new food and beverage products found that there was a steep drop in sales after the initial trials – only about 11% of consumers who tried a product in the first six months remained engaged after one year.
These findings suggest that early positive reactions do not necessarily translate into consistent product adoption (and should not be taken for granted), especially once the product enters the everyday life of the consumers. - Product Usability Is Far More Important Than What Is Assumed
While the first-time purchase of a brand by customers is mainly driven by the acceptance of its ‘promise’, the repeat purchase is essentially driven by its ‘performance’ (the delivery of the promise). Consumer research studies have time and again shown that brands that have sustained in the longer-run have scored highly on product performance.
Consumer studies have also shown that product’s packaging design and usability not only influence consumer purchase decisions at the point of sale, but also influence their repeat purchase decision, especially if there are usability issues with the packaging such as difficulty in storing or opening the product or non-availability of the right pack sizes, etc.
Some of these real‑world frustrations with the product or packaging usability issues may not show up as strongly in the surveys (as in the declining sales graph), but are likely to come out more visibly in consumer conversations, especially when they review or talk about products in the social media. - Critical Role of Price & Value Perceptions During Repeat Purchase Phase
Research studies indicate that consumers often assess price and value of products differently after repeated use. A significant section of shoppers become more sensitive to price after the first experience, indicating that the early ‘novelty’ of the product may mask its ultimate longer‑term value judgment in the consumers’ minds.
However, in the post-purchase phase buyers often compare a product’s price and value to its familiar alternatives and adjust their behavior based on perceived value rather than only the initial excitement (novelty value).This may also be the reason why first‑time purchase cannot (and should not) be taken as a reliable predictor of long‑term success of the product. - Role of Social Influences in Shaping Long‑Term Product Adoptions
Consumer choices in FMCG are not made in isolation. More often than not, peer opinions through online reviews, social media discussions, and word‑of‑mouth influence purchase paths more than many brands anticipate. Views and opinions of people who consumers know, who are part of their community, who they have trust or faith in, often override the advertising or marketing claims and inducements made by the brand or its sales associates.
This social influence dimension also helps explain why some brands or products generate initial buzz but fade away thereafter, while others sustain relevance through loyal consumer or reference groups and communities.
What This Means for Understanding Consumer Behavior?
The data shows that FMCG success is not simply about a successful launch or number of first purchases, or how a product performs in initial feedback surveys. Instead, a more in-depth understanding (and leveraging) of a more sustained consumer behavior over time that is driven by value perception, real product usability, and social influences will determine whether a product will be adopted sufficiently to become a regular part of a consumer’s life and purchase pattern.
For brands who would really want to dig that deep, creating ‘consumer communities’ and engaging with them through regular, ongoing dialogues is more likely to deliver the real consumer behavior patterns and insights. Only such intense and real-time research efforts will reveal the critical behavioral nuances like the reasons behind quiet abandonment or the deeper drivers of repeat purchase behavior. Traditional research methods are very likely to miss out on these.
Read also: How Research Communities Are Transforming Market Research
Key takeaway:
Repeat purchases in FMCG products are driven by consistent product performance, everyday usability, and strong value for money rather than a successful launch alone. Consumers are more likely to buy a product again when it fits easily into their daily routine, offers convenient packaging, and justifies its price after repeated use. Over time, pricing and value perception become more important, while social influence from reviews, word-of-mouth, and community discussions plays a key role in shaping long-term FMCG buying behavior. Here are 6 key take away:
- Early Adoption Doesn’t Guarantee Success –
High first-time purchase rates are not enough; repeat purchases determine long-term product success. - Behavior Over Intent –
Consumers may like a product in intent, but their everyday lifestyle and habits ultimately decide actual adoption. - Price and Value Perception Evolve with Usage –
Consumers often reassess price and value after first use, and it often influences their repeat purchase behavior. - Product and Packaging Usability Matter –
Small inconveniences in packaging or product usability can prevent product’s adoption as a regular part of life. - Social Influence Shapes Adoption –
Peer opinions and community discussions heavily impact whether products are consistently purchased. - Community Research Deliver Deeper Consumer Insights that Surveys Often Miss –
Ongoing conversations and consumer feedbacks provide better understanding of critical usage patterns and nuances, and timely signs of potential silent churns that traditional research methods often miss out on.
Strong launches may create momentum, but repeat purchases decide whether an FMCG product truly survives. Understanding why consumers quietly stop buying requires continuous visibility into real usage, changing value perceptions, and social influence beyond surveys and one-time studies. Community management solutions like Simplisyt enable brands to stay connected with consumers, capture authentic conversations, and uncover the subtle behavioral signals behind repeat buying or silent drop-off. These ongoing insights help FMCG brands refine products, strengthen relevance, and build lasting demand.
References:
- Nielsen analysis of the Beverage Industry indicates that more than 85% of new consumer packaged goods products fail in the marketplace.
- Catalina’s study on new product performance found that only about 11% of first‑time buyers remained engaged after one year. CSNews
- According to research on labeling and packaging impact by Drive Research+1, packaging design influences consumer purchase decisions in a majority of cases.
